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Is there any profitability?

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jmtc1230

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6 years ago #117179

I have a question. This is how every demo account goes after a few weeks.
I am running 52 strategies on 10 markets to try and benefit from an averaging of all the markets with a nice portfolio.
All strategies are developed with SQ and a high power new computer.
All strategies have been robustness tested and only strategies with 100% probability of gain during severe hardship are used.

What seems to be constantly happening is strategies will see a nice positive gain but never take the profit before the market turns.
Then, they get stopped out and experience a loss which eats the account a little at a time.
The issue seems to be not taking profit when they could which would grow the account. The account is constantly eaten away and never takes the profit.

Markets are: EURUSD, GOLD, SILVER, DOW, DAX, GBPUSD, SP500, EUROSTOXX, UK100, BRENT

Can you offer any advice?

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qattack

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6 years ago #143778

Hi jmtc,

 

No matter how much testing you do, and no matter what tools you have at your disposal, you can never develop strategies with “100% probability of gain,” even during good times.

 

How long have your strategies been running, and how many trades has each made? If your sample sizes are not large enough (i.e. not enough trades yet), then no matter how great your systems are, they still have a large chance of losing thus far. My full-time profession for the last ten years has been playing poker. No matter how good you are, no matter how much edge you have over other players, you can still lose an unbelievable amount of the time. Even the best poker players have losing months; some even have losing years. But at least as a poker player (online), you can estimate how far your actual winnings are from your expected value. There’s no such measure you can use to gauge your Expected Value as a trader.

 

 

SQ has calculated what it “believes” is the best strategy. This includes the take profit trigger. If you are perceiving that the strategies are not working as they are constructed, that would mean one of four things: 1. Not large enough sample (remember: “enough sample size” can be MUCH bigger than you would think…possibly more sample size than the length of time the system can trade.) 2. Outcome bias (unless you do mathematical analysis on the outcomes, your observations can easily be tainted by your beliefs.) 3. Your systems are not well-tested. 4. SQ doesn’t work well enough to actually make a profit.

 

However, modifying the take profit conditions manually is very unlikely to improve your systems. You might try “Improve Strategies,” but other than that there’s really nothing you can do to increase the profitability of these particular strategies.

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devonkyle

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6 years ago #144332

I experienced similar results.

Try using the strategies that SQ generates as foundations. Be sure you are backtesting on data your EA hasn’t seen before. Don’t be afraid to dig into the code and tweak what SQ generates – especially when it comes to TP and SL. For me, if the instrument isn’t trending HARD , it’s merely a scalp and when I see a profit, I take it fast. Too many people out there with different opinion – levels and pivots often get tested several times and almost always , tested further than you think they will. Create your own ideas to use as confirmations to the signals you get from SQ. For instance try combing multi time frame signals into a single EA . Add a custom indicator with a correlated instrument  Be creative – think outside the box.

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